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"I will be sitting in this position by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, adding that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into Downing Street for a follow-up talk in 2026.

There is rarely ever downtime for prime ministers. Shortly before our chat started, Starmer had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to understand exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his key friend, US President Donald Trump, had just attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was far more extended than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

As the year commences, Starmer seems to have had a degree of a refresh. Perhaps even just some relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly appeared to have left him in improved morale than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

But are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they believe his standing are poised to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The grisly truth for the prime minister is that many of his colleagues think he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would sooner gamble and oust him this year.

But Sir Keir was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "evaluated at the next election", insisting nobody would take his term from him – even if the optimal path of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to switch leader.

"This is the battle of our lifetime and I aim to guide the party," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised far sooner than then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to contend, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – up to a point. But even though he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, should a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to account for his unpopularity by saying the voters was naturally impatient for things to change. He tried to persuade the interviewer, and the public, that 2026 would be different.

The economic situation would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the administration enacted during their initial choppy year began to take effect.

• He pledged to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he did not put a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a while – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

But despite encountering calls from within his own party for a bolder strategy, with greater political clarity, more urgency, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political trouble, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, gets everything its own way.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because government is challenging, but because he and his team have faltered, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when comments he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting evident political perils as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the notion he would be content with this kind of intervention seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "lifelong champion of international law" but the public "simply lack the entire story at the moment".

Critics called for him to denounce it prior to we spoke. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has long been growing pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete commitment to move closer with the EU's single market – the huge economic European trading zone – will probably trigger accusations that he is breaking his vow never to try to overturn the choices that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will please a faction on his own side, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to