A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
