Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of daily killings per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh official statistics. But, security experts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to indicate better countrywide safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had during these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense organized crime infighting, coupled with the administration's highly militarised efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central pillars of the President's security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

However, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and think: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for estimating the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also an issue because it may mask days when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean renders spikes of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to build a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas remarked.