Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.